WDPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 150.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 247 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 07P (KIRRILY) SHOWING EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEER 
IMPACTING THE SYSTEM, DISPLACING EXPLOSIVE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE 
ENSUING CANOPY TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS BEST OBSERVED IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING IN 
TIGHTLY TO THE LLCC. VERY HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) FEEDING THE SYSTEM REQUISITE ENERGY FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE 
OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS 
(LESS THAN 50 PCT RH) AHEAD OF TRACK, RESTRAINING THE INTENSIFICATION 
TREND OBSERVED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON 241748Z SSMIS 37GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRESENTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: CORAL SEA SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM
FINDERS REEF, WILLIS ISLAND, AND MARION REEF.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 241930Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 55 KTS AT 241900Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 52 KTS AT 241818Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN TURN TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
DISSIPATION AT TAU 36. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTLINE OF AUSTRALIA, 150NM SSE OF CAIRNS, NEAR TAU
18. DISSIPATION OF THE TC IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 36 OVER LAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT TC 07P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. A BRIEF AND 
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS OBSERVED IN GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 12, 
AND THEN A GRADUAL DROP IN INTENSITY IS OBSERVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE FORECAST (TAU 36).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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