WDPS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY)    
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.5S 150.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 283 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH A POINT SOURCE 
NOW PRESENT OVER THE CENTER, EXPANDING OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION, TUCKED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CORE DEEP 
CONVECTION. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR 
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING 
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY AND A 1200Z 
RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM LIHOU REEF, WHICH BOUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 
CENTER, INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 26 KNOTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH 
A SLP VALUE OF 995.9 MB. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 241130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN 
FLANK OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING 
LANDFALL OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 
KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 24. RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION WILL 
OCCUR AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM AT TAU 
24 AND 80 NM AT TAU 36 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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