WDPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (KIRRILY)    
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.4S 152.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 368 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST DAY,
WITH A POINT SOURCE NOW PRESENT OVER THE CENTER, EXPANDING OUTFLOW
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 240459Z
GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MORE SYMMETRIC, BROAD LLCC. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER LIHOU REEF (94293), WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AFTER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MINIMUM SLP WAS RECORDED AT 240500Z WITH A VALUE OF 991.8 MB.
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI,
AMSR2 IMAGE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 240530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 30. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 24. RAPID WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
35 NM AT TAU 24 AND 45 NM AT TAU 36 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN