WDXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK)    
WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 91.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1174 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 20 NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS 
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LOW RESOLUTION 240714Z 
N20 ATMS 165 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED SPIRAL BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DEPICT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH 
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A JET TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE MIXED WITH 
THE RECENT DPRINT ESTIMATE AT 71 KNOTS, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 
UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS).    

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 240227Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 240730Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 71 KTS AT 240800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUE TO THE IMMINENT 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE, TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
QUICKLY TO 90-95 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT COULD EASILY PEAK 
AT HIGHER VALUES. AFTER TAU 36, SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE 
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SST (26-28 C) AND ENTRAINS DRY AIR. 
HOWEVER, REINTENSIFICATION TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96 IS LIKELY AFTER TAU 
72 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER A POOL OF WARM SST (29C).     

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK 
FORECAST. THROUGH TAU 48, RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES 
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED, REFLECTING THE IMPROVED 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER MESOSCALE GUIDANCE PEAK VALUES RANGE 
FROM 67 TO 110 KNOTS. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, MESOSCALE INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE RANGES FROM A PEAK OF 90 TO 135 KNOTS. DUE TO THE COMPACT 
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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