WDPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 153.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 414 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LIMITED,
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
LOW-LEVEL MESOVORTICES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A
PARTIAL 232029Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SENSOR PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON WINDS EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS EVIDENT WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY IN A PARTIAL 232222Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND COVERAGE HAS DECREASED, AN 
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE SYSTEM REFLECTS AN EXPANSION OF
OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY TO THE WEST, AS WELL AS THE DISSIPATION OF A 
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND METOP-B ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 232222Z FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING (STR) TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 232330Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 240000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 07P WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. SLOW BUT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IMPROVING
OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS VERY
UNLIKELY AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS ONLY LIMITED TIME TO 
CONSOLIDATE. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND
AFTER TAU 36 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER PRIOR TO LANDFALL. CONSENSUS DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL DEPICT A SLOW UPWARD TREND TOWARD A PEAK 
INTENSITY IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GIVEN THE 
STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPMENT FACTORS, CONFIDENCE IN 
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS IS HIGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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