WDXS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK)
WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.3S 91.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 299 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) SHOWING A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND GREATLY DIMINISHED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. CENTRALIZED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ENTIRELY DISPLACED, WITH
ONLY FRAGMENTED CLUSTERS OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPERSED
AMONGST THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DERIVED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A LARGE DRY AIR MASS (LESS THAN 50 PCT RH)
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEMS UPPER AND MIDDLE
LAYERS. THE 211200Z HWRF MODEL RUN INDICATES PROMINENT UPWELLING, 
SHOWING A VERY LOW 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT 211800Z.
THE RECENT DROP IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY RESULTANT OF BOTH FACTORS
MENTIONED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC ON ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BELOW AND A 211140Z
SMOS IMAGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING NER NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF STR TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 211730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72, EXPERIENCING INTENSIFICATION ALONG-TRACK AS IT
PICKS UP TRACK SPEED AND FINDS WARMER WATERS AND MOIST AIR. FROM
TAU 60 TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FIND A PEAK INTENSITY
OF NEAR 75KTS. THEREAFTER, AND CONTINUING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL THROUGH TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120.  WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, THE JTWC CONSENSUS PRESENTS A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 88NM AT TAU 72, AND 200NM AT TAU 120, EXEMPLIFYING TIGHT
AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, HOWEVER,
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AMONG JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. A GENERAL
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 60 TO TAU 72 AND THEN DOWNTREND IN 
INTENSITY FOLLOWING IS OBSERVED UNIFORMLY, BUT THE SPREAD AT TAU 60 
IS 60KTS, CENTERED AT 75KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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