WDXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.2S 62.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 384 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL)
CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, MAINTAINING INTENSITY DESPITE
DRY AIR ENTRAINING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
MODERATE TO HIGH (20KTS-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES
TO CAUSE EVIDENT HAVOC TO THE TC STRUCTURE, EVIDENCED BY
INTERMITTENT STRIPPING OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WESTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT CARRIES AWAY
CIRRUS FILAMENTS FAR AHEAD OF THE STORMS PROJECTED TRACK. A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN
OBSERVED EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS IT
CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO REALIGN WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO NEARLY UNFAVORABLE LEVELS (26-27 C)
AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SUSTAINMENT TREND, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 162259Z SSMIS 37GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 162039Z AMSR2 SATELLITE DERIVED WINDSPEED
IMAGE, AS WELL AS THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR2 SATELLITE DERIVED WINDSPEED

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING STR NORTHEAST OF TC 05S

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 162100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S (BELAL), LIKE THE GREATLY ALIGNED MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36, GRADUALLY DECAYING ALONG THE WAY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE IN THE COMING HOURS. UPON
COMING TO AN ABRUPT HALT AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
THEN TRACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK, GRADUALLY TURNING TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 72.  THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FULLY DISSIPATE TC 05S PRIOR TO TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT TC 05S WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD UNTIL TAU 36
WHEN THE SYSTEM STALLS TRACK SPEED DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
INTENSITY MAY GRADUALLY FALL TO 45KTS BY TAU 36. THEREAFTER, MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS ON A NEAR RECIPROCAL
HEADING WESTWARD, SLOWLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU
72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TC WILL HAVE FULLY DISSIPATED
PRIOR TO TAU 72.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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