WDXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL)      
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.8S 53.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
DESPITE INCREASING PRESSURE FROM SUBTROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) 05S CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE DUE IN LARGE PART TO STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. A
140957Z AMSR2 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL CORE SURROUNDING A SMALL,
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS AS WELL AS A
140957Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE, WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85
KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FIMP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 141200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 141230Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 83 KTS AT 141300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO 
TURN SHARPLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STR 
WEAKENS AND REORIENTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 12 UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEFORE DRY AIR ENTRAINS INTO THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, STEADY WEAKENING TO 70 KNOTS IS 
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05S WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY 
WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
BUILDING TO THE WEST AND EAST, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING EASTWARD 
PROGRESSION. AS TC 05S SLOWS AND TURNS NORTHEASTWARD, VWS SHOULD 
DECREASE WITH RE-MOISTENING OF THE CORE ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT RE-
INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 120.      

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48 DIVERGING TO 110 NM AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, 
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITH HAFS-A SHOWING A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 97 KNOTS AT TAU 12. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASING SPREAD AFTER 
TAU 72.       

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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