WDXS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.1S 53.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS CONTINUOUS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
ENCIRCLE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
SPIRAL BANDING AND AN OBSERVABLE AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) OBSCURING THE RECENTLY FORMED EYE. A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN
THE 132338Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND VALIDATES THE FORMATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
EYE FEATURE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, PRIMARILY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW, FMEE,
AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
RISEN THROUGH THE LAST SIX HOURS, AND RANGE FROM 61-77 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 64 KTS AT 131859Z
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 132100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BELAL) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS.
AFTERWARD, TC BELAL WILL SHARPLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR
WEAKENS AND THE WESTERLIES SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR. TC BELAL IS
UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME, AND WILL CONTINUE
UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TAU 36. SLIGHT
WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AT TAU 48 DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUB TROPICAL
WESTERLIES AND INCREASED DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC BELAL WILL TRACK TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT
FORECASTED AT THIS TIME, AN INCREASE IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES
WILL SLOW DISSIPATION OF TC BELAL TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC AND CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVEMENT
SPEED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COMPETING STEERING
MECHANISMS INCREASE.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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