WDXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL)      
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 54.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 241 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING
AND A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS
BEEN SPARSE BUT A 130953Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
WITH A DEVELOPING INNER CORE AND POSSIBLE EYEWALL OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
THE PGTW, KNES SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY LOWER AND RANGE FROM 46-51 KNOTS. A
SENTINEL-1A SAR PASS IS SCHEDULED AT 131500Z BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MISS THE CENTER.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 130900Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 131200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES SHIFT OVER MADAGASCAR
AND WEAKEN THE STR. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. STEADY WEAKENING WILL
COMMENCE AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. TC 05S WILL TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 120 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REORIENTED STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 96, THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW
FOR SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION AS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND AN
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATE EASTWARD, WITH DECREASING VWS
AND IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS ALSO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN IN THE LATER TAUS AS THE STR
BUILDS BACK IN AND A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS. THE
130600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE (GFS VERSION) CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE WITH PEAK 90 TO 95 PERCENT RI
PROBABILITIES THROUGH TAU 30. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION
GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED WITH RIPA SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS BY TAU 72. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY,
THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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