WDPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING 
NR 
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 148.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RESURGENCE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH VIGOROUS LIGHTING. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THE EIR IS
INCONCLUSIVE. AN 111803Z GPM 37 GHZ OVERPASS REVEALS A BROAD BANDED
STRUCTURE, WHICH REMAINS OPEN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE 1800Z
OBSERVATION AT NEARBY HOLMES REEF INDICATES MSLP HAD FALLEN TO 994
MB, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE COMPOSITE OF ABOVE DATA, AS WELL AS
THE RADAR ANIMATION FROM WILLIS ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
RAISED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE OBSERVED ENHANCED CONVECTION AND
RISING DVORAK T3.0 ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF, HOWEVER BOTH
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW THIS VALUE, RANGING
FROM 33 TO 48 KNOTS. JASPER IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
TENDENCY IS IMPROVING, ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STILL DISPLACING
THE VORTEX. GFS ANALYSIS INDICATES THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TC 03P IS
STILL SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, HOWEVER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE
CORE IS IMPROVING.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 111546Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 111730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS FORECAST TO TURN ONTO A WESTERLY
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE HAFS-A MODEL APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL ANALYSIS STRUCTURE. THE MODEL
INDICATES JASPER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING HUMIDITY AND OUTFLOW ALLOWING ADDITIONAL
REINTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AT AROUND 130400Z. THE
FORECAST PEAK IS SET TO 60 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE LANDFALLING POSITION
LIES IN BETWEEN TWO FORECAST TAUS. JASPER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD OVER CAPE YORK AND SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 72, AS
THE REMNANTS MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. AT THIS TIME,
GUIDANCE DOES NOT REDEVELOP THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAD SOME TROUBLE FORECASTING THE
PRIOR SOUTHERLY DIP, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
A WESTERLY TRACK OVER CAPE YORK. CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 IS LESS
THAN 100 NM. HAFS-A REACHES 77 KNOTS AT LANDFALL, WHICH IS LIKELY
OVER AGRESSIVE UNLESS OUTFLOW MARKEDLY IMPROVES. HWRF IS SLOWER TO
CONSOLIDATE AND MAKES LANDFALL AT AROUND 55 KNOTS.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM 
//
NNNN