WDPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER)
WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7S 149.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) HAVING A MOSTLY EXPOSED MID-LEVEL 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A CLOUD-FREE DRY SLOT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, OBSERVABLE IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
PROVIDES INDICATION THE TC CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED WITH DRY AIR
SOURCED FROM THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 111200Z HIMAWARI-9 EIR
SATELLITE IMAGE AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 111200Z SYNOPTIC 
OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF (SOUTHEASTERLY AT 38 KTS), HOLMES REEF 
(SOUTHWESTERLY AT 43 KTS), AND WILLIS ISLAND (NORTHERLY AT 41 KTS) AND 
A 110838Z RCM-1 SAR IMAGE SHOWING UP TO 53 KTS IN THE SOUTHEAST 
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 111230Z
   CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 111130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST TO HAVE A BRIEF
WINDOW (TAU 00 TO TAU 36) TO UNDERGO SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION. AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SHALLOW REEFS EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, THE ENVIRONMENT OFFERS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 CELSIUS, A 
REMOISTENING OF THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (70 PERCENT 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY TAU 48), AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS. WITH LANDFALL 
FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 42, THE SYSTEM IS THEREAFTER ANTICIPATED TO 
TRACK WESTWARD OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 72. AS GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONVEYS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AFTER THE 
VORTEX CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA IT BECOMES REVITALIZED IN THE 
GULF OF CARPENTARIA, POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT TC O3P (JASPER) WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM
TAU 00 TO TAU 24, AND THEN TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAIN 
THROUGH TAU 72. A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 51NM BETWEEN JTWC 
CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS PRESENT AT LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 42), BUT A
LARGER ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 138NM AT TAU 48 BETWEEN GALWEM AND
ECMWF PRESENTS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVIDED, PRESENTING A 15 KTS INTENSITY SPREAD
AT TAU 36, WITH HAFS-A AT THE TOP END (55 KTS) AND
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT THE BOTTOM END (40 KTS). GIVEN
THE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR BOTH TRACK
AND INTENSITY IS MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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