WDPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER)
WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.5S 149.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 221 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) EXHIBITING A FULLY EXPOSED MID-LEVEL WITH
ONE SMALL ELEMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, OBSERVABLE IN A 110600Z
HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. A CLOUD-FREE DRY SLOT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, OBSERVABLE IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
PROVIDES INDICATION THE TC CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTING OFF OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 110600Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 110600Z SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM
FLINDERS REEF (42KTS), HOLMES REEF (37KTS), AND WILLIS ISLAND
(33KTS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 110430Z
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 32 KTS AT 110600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEER HAVING DROPPED TO
LOWER (5-10 KTS) VALUES AND FORECAST TO REMAIN SO, TC 03P (JASPER)
HAS A BRIEF WINDOW (TAU 00 TO TAU 42) TO UNDERGO SLIGHT
REINTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE SHALLOW REEFS EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, THE ENVIRONMENT
OFFERS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 CELSIUS AND A REMOISTENING OF THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE (70 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY TAU 48).  WITH LANDFALL
FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 42, THE SYSTEM IS THEREAFTER FORECAST TO 
TRACK WESTWARD OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT TC O3P (JASPER) WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST FROM TAU
00 TO TAU 24, AND THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72. A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 42NM BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS
MEMBERS IS PRESENT AT LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 42), BUT A LARGER
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 165NM BETWEEN NAVGEM AND GFS PRESENTS
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
DIVIDED, PRESENTING A 20 KTS INTENSITY SPREAD (40 TO 60 KTS) AT TAU 
36. GIVEN THE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR BOTH 
TRACK AND INTENSITY IS MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN