WDPS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING 
NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 150.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 263 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), DEVOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAVING BEEN SMOTHERED BY A WEDGE
OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR ENSCONCED ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK-BASED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE HIGHER CIMSS
SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE
REACHED ITS SOUTHERN-MOST POINT AROUND THE 0000Z HOUR, AND
SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM NOW TRACKING WEST OR EVEN A BIT
NORTH OF DUE WEST, TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH THE DRY AIR AND A LACK OF
STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSETTING THE LOW WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 110000Z
   CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 102330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND REPOSITION TO A POINT
NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE. AS THIS OCCURS, TC 03P WILL SHIFT
EQUATORWARD ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF CAIRNS IS
ANTICIPATED AROUND TAU 36, AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE YORK
PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ANOTHER FIVE KNOTS OR SO
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SMOTHER ANY
HOPES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A REMOISTENING OF THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AND RESULTANT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO REACHING LAND. THE TIGHT
WINDOW PRIOR TO LANDFALL, ASSUMING THE MOISTENING OCCURS, WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION THE SYSTEM CAN SUSTAIN.
ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW 
WARNING CRITERIA, BY TAU 72 OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CAPE YORK 
PENINSULA. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL MODEL SPREAD BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL. HAFS-A AND HWRF CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
SOUTHERN COURSE, WITH LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF CAIRNS, AND GFS HAS
NOW JOINED THAT PARTY. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY,
THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT THIS POINT SO THOSE
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKS SEEM UNLIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GENERAL COURSE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE MEAN TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
SHARPLY AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DISSIPATES, AND THE
JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN.
CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING BUT REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF
THE SHAPE OF THE INTENSITY CHANGE, THOUGH THE JTWC FORECAST IS
ABOUT 5-7 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE COAMPS-TC PEAK. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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