WDPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 
023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.5S 152.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 409 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) ACCELERATING ALONG TRACK LEAVING 
BEHIND NECESSARY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED DEEP
CONVECTION HAVING COME TO A RAPID HALT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE CONSIDERABLY
WEAKENED. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION REPORTS (101200Z) FROM MARION REEF,
113NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
REPORTED 43KT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES, AND LIHOU REEF LIGHTHOUSE,
74NM WEST OF THE LLCC, REPORTED 22KTS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES. A
100717Z SMOS PASSIVE MICROWAVE RADIOMETER DERIVED WIND SPEED IMAGE 
REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SMOS 
IMAGE AND ANIMATED HIMAWARI-9 EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 101300Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 101300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: HOVERING NEAR THE SAME INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND BATTLING MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR (RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 55 PERCENT), TC 03P IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH A SOUTHERN APEX NEAR 18 DEGREES SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TURN
TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AFTERWARDS, FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 72, LOW
(5-10 KTS) VWS AND A REMOISTENING OF THE MID-LAYER ARE LIKELY TO 
PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED REINTENSIFICATION PHASE PRIOR TO A LANDFALL 
EVENT (NEAR TAU 66). ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS, THE TC VORTEX IS 
ANTICIPATED TO TRACK WESTWARD AND COME TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND PRIOR 
TO TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TC 03P WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 12, AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THE
TC WILL MAINTAIN OR JUST SLIGHTLY (5 KTS) DROP IN INTENSITY OVER
THIS INTERVAL. FROM TAU 24 TO LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 66), INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL OCCUR, APPROACHING
60-65 KTS. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 93NM AT LANDFALL CONVEYS SOME 
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. FROM TAU 66 TO TAU 96 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE OFFERS A RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO OCCUR 
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER LAND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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