WDPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.1S 156.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 701 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY
WOUND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WAXING AND WANING EYE, WHICH
IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM A
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN 062031Z COWVR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IN THE MID-RANGE OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 03P CONTINUES TO CHURN
POLEWARD WITH A STEADILY IMPROVING CORE SIGNATURE AND A LONG BAND
OF CIRRUS STREAMING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LAYER, FORESHADOWING A CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION TREND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: RCM-3 SAR DATA FROM 061906Z

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 062330Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 82 KTS AT 070000Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 84 KTS AT 061939Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING, TO APPROXIMATELY
75 NM AT TAU 120.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, DEEP-LAYER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
INDUCING A WESTWARD TURN. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER
VERY WARM WATER AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT A SPIKE IN
THE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONSEQUENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WEAKENING
IN THE MID-TERM IS EXPECTED TO END LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACK SOLUTIONS FOR TC
03P DIVERGE, INCLUDING SLOWING AND LOOPING MOTION INDICATED IN THE
UKMET AND RELATED MODELS AND STEADY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION IN THE GFS, GEFS, ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND EC-EPS SOLUTIONS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MORE LIKELY GEFS AND 
EC-EPS DISTRIBUTIONS, SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS 
ORIENTATION
CONSISTENT WITH EC AND NCEP (GFS AND GEFS) DISTRIBUTIONS. IN
CONTRAST TO DIVERGENCE IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST TREND THROUGH TAU
120 AND LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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