WDPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.8S 157.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 177 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING, TYPHOON STRENGTH CIRCULATION WHOSE LLCC IS FULLY
OBSCURED. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN
TO FULLY WRAP THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND HAVE BEGUN TO TRACE A
POSSIBLE EYE FEATURE. A 052119Z 34GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A DRASTICALLY IMPROVED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH
FULLY FORMED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 052233Z ASCAT-B
SCATTEROMETERY IMAGE INDICATES A SMALL SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A
SURROUNDING WIND FIELD SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MSI, MICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 55-65KTS WITH MINIMAL
DEVIATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 052330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED
FORWARD TRACK MOTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE NER TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD AND FORCE 03P
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PICKS UP SPEED, HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS
OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSITY THE SYSTEM TO OVER 100KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU
48, INCREASING VWS, DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE ONSET OF
WESTERLY COOL DRY AIR INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN 03P FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 72,
03P WILL TRANSITION STEERING CONTROL TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
DUE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AS VWS AND OUTFLOW WORSEN, THE SYSTEM
WILL FALL TO ROUGHLY 70KTS BY TAU 96 AND AROUND 60KTS BY TAU 120 AS
THE STR FORCES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD CROSS TRACK
AGREEMENT BUT POOR ALONG TRACK AGREEMENT. THE VARIOUS MEMBERS AGREE
AND ECHO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK MOTION HOWEVER, IT IS CLEAR THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING AND THEREFORE TRACK SPEEDS ARE NOT
AGREED UPON. COAMPS-TC, HWRF AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLOWER POLEWARD
TRACK SPEED WHILE GFS, NVGM AND HFAS-A INDICATE THE OPPOSITE. BASED
ON THE INCREASING ALONG TRACK SPREADING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
THERE AFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS INCLUDING SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) AIDS, INDICATING A SHARP INCREASE TO JUST OVER 100KTS BY TAU
36 AND A GRADUAL DECLINE AFTER TAU 48. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN