WDPS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.4S 156.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 200 NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 03P (THREE) SHOWING SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION,
MOST PREVALENT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, WITH EMBEDDED ELEMENTS
EXHIBITING OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME COMPLETELY OBSCURED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS BY A BLOSSOMING CONVECTIVE CANOPY ALOFT. SIGNIFICANT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS MOST OBSERVABLE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS
CIRRUS FILAMENTS DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 051800Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 050530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO EAST OF TC 03P AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK
CONDITIONS OF HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW
(5-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ALOFT 
WILL
ALLOW THE TC TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND REALIZE THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 72, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, DECLINING 
SST AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE FORECAST TO SET IN AND BRING ABOUT A 
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKENING OF THE TC.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TC 03P WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD GRADUALLY
TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 102NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 142NM AT TAU
72 CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
CONFIDENCE OF MEDIUM.  ADDITIONALLY, JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES 
TO SUGGEST A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE 
SAME TIME INTERVAL.  AFTER TAU 72, THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS
DIFFER GREATLY IN SOLUTIONS AND OFFER MUCH UNCERTAINTY. BY TAU 120,
A 456NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN MOGREPS AND GFS IS OBSERVED IN
MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT AMBIGUITY PRESENTED IN TRACK
SPEED DURING THE TAU 72 TO TAU 120 INTERVAL, THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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