WDIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.5N 81.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 60 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG) HAS BEEN BEHAVING ACCORDING TO
EXPECTATIONS.  DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS IT HAS PASSED NORTH OF
CHENNAI AND DEEPENED WHILE TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE COROMANDEL
COAST. THE INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS A BIT DECEPTIVE IN THAT
IT CREATES THE IMPRESSION OF VERTICAL TILT, BUT A 032229Z SSMIS
SERIES VERIFIES THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED.  THE
37GHZ IMAGES ALSO ALLOW FOR CONFIDENT LOCATION ON THE SYSTEM
CENTER.  THE IMPRESSION OF VERTICAL TILT IS A RESULT OF BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION BEING KICKED UP BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST
AS EVIDENCED ON THE 91H IMAGE. IN FACT THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED AND
STRENGTHENED AND IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF EXCESSIVE SHEAR OR WEAKENING
ON ITS WAY TO LANDFALL IN THE ONGOLE-CHIRALA REGION.  THE JTWC
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T3.5 IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH A
PLETHORA OF AUTOMATED ASSESSMENTS INCLUDING ADT RAW VALUES OF T3.5
AND DMINT AND DPRINT VALUES FROM 48 TO 55KTS. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN
A HEAVILY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OVER RANGOON IS FORCING THE
SYSTEM TO STAY WEST AS IT MOVES INTO ITS POLEWARD LEG. EQUATORIAL
OUTFLOW HAS WANED BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST. THE ONLY
FACTOR THAT WILL CAP DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS 
LAND INTERACTION ON THE POLEWARD AND WESTERN FLANKS AND SLIGHTLY 
COOLER NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED IN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER RANGOON. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 032018Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 040000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: MICHUANG WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT SIX TO EIGHTEEN HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS STEADY TRACK TOWARDS
THE ONGOLE CHIRALA REGION. THE TIME WINDOW FOR LANDFALL OF THE VORTEX 
CENTERS AROUND O5DEC0600Z. LOW VWS, OUTSTANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND 
CONSISTENTLY WARM SEA WATERS ALONG TRACK WILL PROVIDE ONE LAST SURGE 
OF ENERGY.  ONCE INLAND, TC 08B WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DECAY OVER 
THE ANDRA PRADESH REGION.  VWS EXCEEDS 30KTS BY THE 18TH LATITUDE.  
ALL CONCERNS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT RETURN INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AND 
THREATEN BANGLADESH HAVE BEEN ALLEVIATED. IT WILL BE EXTREMELY 
DIFFICULT TO EVEN LOCATE THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.  


MODEL DISCUSSION: ALTHOUGH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS BEEN MUCH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THIS STORMS LIFE CYCLE, THE STORY
THE GUIDANCE HAS TOLD HAS BEEN QUALITATIVELY CONSISTENT AND
ACCURATE. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE TIGHTENED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, LENDING IMPROVED CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST STAYS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
FAVORING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND H-FAS OVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND TC-
COAMPS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH BOTH THE PACK OF
DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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