WDIO31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (MICHAUNG)   
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.4N 82.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 699 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY,
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
031143Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED,
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
ROBUST WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45
KNOTS). IN GENERAL, CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES (ADT, AIDT,
DPRINT, DMINT) RANGE FROM 36 TO 41 KNOTS SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 031230Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 031230Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 40 KTS AT 031300Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 36 KTS AT 031146Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU
12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AS IT 
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TC 08B IS EXPECTED TO 
STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER 
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 48, TC O8B WILL 
SLOWLY RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN INDIA ERODING THE WESTERN EXTENT 
OF THE STR. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND 
AND ENCOUNTERS VIGOROUS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG VWS (20 
KNOTS AT TAU 60 TO 45 KNOTS AT TAU 84). AFTER THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES 
NEAR TAU 96, THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK BACK OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF 
BENGAL BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE DUE TO THE HOSTILE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 48 DIVERGING TO 115NM
AT TAU 72 LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH A VERY LARGE SPREAD. THE 030600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) 
AND GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) ALSO INDICATE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
EXACT TRACK WITH SOLUTIONS EVENLY SPREAD AROUND THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK INCLUDING SOME SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER ALONG 
THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. THE LATEST HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC RUNS 
INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 KNOTS. THE JTWC 
INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) REVEALS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. 
HOWEVER, THE JTWC PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS MAINTAINED BASED ON 
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS FURTHER BOLSTERED BY THE TRIGGERING OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 030600Z COAMPS-TC (GFS 
VERSION) ENSEMBLE, WHICH INDICATES A 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 18.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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