WDPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.8S 179.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 346 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
DETERIORATING SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO BE SEVERELY SHEARED WITH THE
CONVECTION DISPLACED EASTWARD ALONG WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COOLER
(22-23 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC DEPICTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MSI
LOOP ALONG WITH MULTI-AGENCY FIX LOCATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND SET BASED ON A
BLEND OF MULTIPLE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A MAXIMUM
WIND VALUE OF 76 KNOTS FROM A 151724Z RCM-1 SAR PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 151329Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 151730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 22-23 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02P (MAL) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRANSIT THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING GRADIENT, LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED, WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TRANSIT WITHIN COOLER SSTS AND CONTINUE TO BE ENVELOPED
BY INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHILE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
(30+ KTS) VWS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET (STJ) AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). BY TAU 24, TC
02P WILL BECOME COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IMPACTED BY
VERY HIGH SHEAR AND TRANSITION TO A FULLY SUBTROPICAL LOW IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
TRACKS UNDER THE STJ.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE NUMERICAL MEMBERS
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO ROUGHLY 70 NM
BY TAU 24. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK IS THUS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FOR THE MOST PART IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE DECAY-SHIPS (GFS)
WHICH WEAKENS THE SYSTEM TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND THEN STAYS
JUST ABOVE 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, HAFS
MAKES UP THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHICH CONTINUES TO
SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS CONCUR ON FAIRLY STEADY WEAKENING. THE JTWC FORECAST
CLOSELY TRACKS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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