WDPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL)       
WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.6S 178.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 271 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. EIR ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE,
ASSOCIATED WITH A COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 150954Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
BROAD, WEAK CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS), WHICH IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH A
MAXIMUM WIND VALUE OF 74 KNOTS FROM A 150644Z RCM-1 SAR PASS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 151130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 23-24 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02P HAS COMMENCED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
(STT) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, WITH RAPID WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED DUE TO VERY HIGH (70-80 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24) VWS, DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLING SST VALUES (24C TO 21C). TC 02P WILL
COMPLETE STT NEAR TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE
OUTLIER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE
150000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND THE 150600Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS)
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
REVEALS A SHARP WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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