WDPS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL)       
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.6S 178.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P IS TRACKING UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WITH HIGH (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). CONSEQUENTLY, THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (ULCC) IS 
BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS 
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) WHICH SHOWS 
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAPIDLY DECAYING 
CORE CONVECTION. A 150630Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A 
WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE 
ULCC IS TILTED ABOUT 40NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS.         

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 150216Z
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 150530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02P HAS COMMENCED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
(STT) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, WITH RAPID WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED DUE TO VERY HIGH (60-70 KNOTS AFTER TAU 24) VWS, DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLING SST VALUES (25C TO 21C). TC 02P WILL
COMPLETE STT NO LATER THAN TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE 
OUTLIER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT. ADDITIONALLY, THE 
141800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) AND THE 150000Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) ARE 
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND 
REVEALS A SHARP WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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