WDPS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 178.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 134 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEEP
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION BECOMING FRAGMENTED BUT HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSE CORE.
THE SOUTHERN FORWARD FLANK OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH
EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
MAINTAINED A RAGGED REMNANT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE REMNANT EYE IN THE MSI LOOP
THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM FIJI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 142029Z
   CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 142030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE 
FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO SHARPLY 
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
LEADING TO A RAPID DETERIORATION. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 36, TC 02P WILL 
COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG WESTERLIES, 
AND BY TAU 48 WILL BECOME A 40-KT SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 85NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
WIND FIELD TYPICAL WITH SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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