WDPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL) WARNING NR 
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.7S 176.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 109 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION BECOMING FRAGMENTED. FEEDER BANDS ARE LOOSENING AND THE
SOUTHERN FORWARD FLANK OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH
EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
MAINTAINED A RAGGED 20-NM REMNANT EYE, HOWEVER. THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN THE EIR LOOP
THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM FIJI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK 
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 141730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 64 KTS AT 141730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAL HAS JUST PASSED ABOUT 50NM TO THE WEST
OF FIJI AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE STEERING STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO SHARPLY INCREASING 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO A 
RAPID DETERIORATION. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 36, TC 02P WILL COMMENCE 
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG WESTERLIES, AND BY 
TAU 48 WILL BECOME A 40-KT SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND 
FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 94NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE 
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND FIELD 
TYPICAL WITH SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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