WDPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL)        
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2S 175.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P REMAINS SITUATED UNDER A BELT OF MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES, WHICH IS EXERTING PRESSURE ON THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS PRESSURE, THE SYSTEM 
APPEARED TO BE CONSOLIDATING UNTIL ABOUT 141110Z WITH A MORE SYMMETRIC 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. SINCE 
141110Z, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A 
QUICKLY FRAGMENTING, MORE ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP 
TEMPERATURES. THIS RAPID CYCLING OF CORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12, AIDED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE AND REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF 
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 63 TO 77 
KNOTS. A 140637Z RCM-1 SAR PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 63 TO 70 KNOTS 
OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT WITH THE MAJORITY OF PIXELS IN THE 60-65 
KNOT RANGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 141017Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED 
BASED ON THE ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
FROM YASAWA-I-RARA (91660) AND NANDI (91680).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST WITH ENHANCED STEERING FLOW DUE TO A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE CORAL SEA.  

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 141108Z
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 141200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 141200Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 71 KTS AT 141200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM 
SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS BUT COULD POSSIBLY INTENSIFY 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
WILL INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS (30-55 KNOTS), WHICH WILL LEAD TO A 
STEADY WEAKENING TREND. AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES AROUND THE STR AFTER 
TAU 36, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT 
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET (STJ) AND COMMENCES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION 
(STT). STT WILL COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM 
INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRACKS UNDER THE STJ.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 65NM TO 110NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72. THE GEFS AND EPS PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THUS THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SPLIT: HAFS-A AND DECAY-SHIPS INDICATE A FLAT 
TREND, HWRF SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) 
INDICATES A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 
12, INTENSITY GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE 
STEADY WEAKENING TREND.     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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