WDPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL)        
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.1S 175.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 224 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P IS LOCATED UNDER A BELT OF MODERATE UPPER-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES, WHICH IS EXERTING PRESSURE ON THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, 
AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES APPEAR TO ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO 
MAINTAIN AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE OBSCURED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS TC 02P QUICKLY TRACKS SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD. A 140538Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, BUT DEFINED 
LLCC WITH EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN 
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON THIS SSMIS IMAGE AS WELL AS THE 37GHZ IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE HEDGED BELOW 
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) 
BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 59 KNOTS AND 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST WITH ENHANCED STEERING FLOW DUE TO A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE CORAL SEA.  

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 140500Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 140600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 59 KTS AT 140600Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 59 KTS AT 140600Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 59 KTS AT 140541Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02P IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE
UNDER THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY TO ABOUT 65 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED 
INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL BOOST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
WILL INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS (30-50 KNOTS), WHICH WILL LEAD TO A 
STEADY WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS AS 
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET (STJ) AND 
COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). STT WILL COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 
48 AND TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 
TRACKS UNDER THE STJ.    

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 60NM TO 95NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD 
FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72. THE GEFS AND EPS PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS ALSO 
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY 
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SPLIT: HWRF 
AND DECAY-SHIPS INDICATE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WHILE HAFS-A AND 
COAMPS-TC ARE FLAT THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND.     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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