WDPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.5S 174.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 375 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEEPENING MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS MAINTAINED OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, AND IN
RECENT FRAMES IN THE EIR LOOP, AN INDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
PARTIAL LLCC FEATURE IN THE 131810Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT
LINED UP WITH THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR 
IMPROVEMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 131800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MAL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, PASSING WITHIN 50NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI, JUST BEFORE TAU
24. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 75KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED 
TO SHARPLY INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO COOL LEADING TO A 
RAPID DETERIORATION. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, TC 02P WILL COMMENCE 
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG WESTERLIES, AND BY 
TAU 72 WILL BECOME A 40-KT SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND 
FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 210NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE 
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND FIELD TYPICAL WITH 
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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