WDPS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.2S 167.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 107 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DISORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HAVING JUST CROSSED THE ISLAND OF SOWAN, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AMIDST AN ONSLAUGHT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
A 241922Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES WORSENING VERTICAL
TILTING AS THE VORTEX IS DECAPITATED BY THE INCREASING VWS. THE
SSMIS IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN EXPOSED WESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE
INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE 90KTS, WHILE
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATED FROM CIMSS (ADT, AIDT, DPRINT)
INDICATE 70-87KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   PHFO: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 242330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL
   OTHER FACTORS: DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW BOTH POLEWARD AND WESTWARD. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01P (LOLA) IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ROUND
THE STR AXIS, PASSING WEST OF PORT VILA AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD, PASSING OVER NEW CALEDONIA BEFORE MERGING
WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. BOTTOM LINE, THE NEXT 72 HOURS WILL NOT
BE KIND TO 01P. AS NOTED IN THE SSMIS IMAGERY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS ALREADY DECOUPLING THE VORTEX AS MAX SHEAR PASSES 50KTS
AND IS FORECAST TO REACH NEARLY 100KTS BY TAU 72. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL PASS POLEWARD OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH GREATLY INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND AFOREMENTIONED VWS, 01P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN TO 65KTS BY TAU 24. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE, FALLING TO 35KTS BY TAU 48. BY
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA JUST PRIOR
TO IT BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL
MEMBERS FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. COAMPS-TC
AND HAFS-A INDICATE FASTER TRACK SPEEDS AND RESULTS IS ALONG TRACK
SPREADING. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED NEAR THE
CONSENSUS TRACK FORECAST WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS
INDICATING RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36 AND DISSIPATION BY TAU
72. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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