WDPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.8S 167.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 118 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
AS THE SUN RISES OVER 01P, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF DEEP CONVECTION, FULLY
OBSCURING THE LLCC BENEATH. A SUITE OF 241615Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, SPECIFICALLY THE 91GHZ AND 37GHZ IMAGES INDICATE A
DECOUPLED CIRCULATION WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
VISIBLE IN THE PERIPHERY. MAX VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SURPASSES
50KTS, RESULTING IN THE DECAPITATION OF THE CIRCULATION AND
FORESHADOWING THE SYSTEMS IMMINENT AND RAPID DECLINE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 100KTS, WHILE FINAL T (FT) ESTIMATES HAVE
FALLEN TO T4.5-5.0.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   PHFO: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 88 KTS AT 241403Z
   CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 241730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01P (LOLA) IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ROUND
THE STR AXIS, PASSING SOUTH OF VANUATU AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD, PASSING OVER NEW CALEDONIA BEFORE MERGING
WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. BOTTOM LINE, THE NEXT 72 HOURS WILL NOT
BE KIND TO 01P. AS NOTED IN THE SSMIS IMAGERY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS ALREADY DECOUPLING THE VORTEX AS MAX SHEAR PASSES 50KTS
AND IS FORECAST TO REACH NEARLY 100KTS BY TAU 72. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL PASS POLEWARD OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH GREATLY INCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND AFORMENTIONED VWS, 01P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
TO 65KTS BY TAU 24. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE, FALLING TO 35KTS BY TAU 48. BY TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA JUST PRIOR TO
IT BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH THE STRONG
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM AND AFUM, WHICH
REPRESENT EAST-WEST OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFOR PLACED
NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS
INDICATING RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36 AND DISSIPATION BY TAU
72. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: ---
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: ---//
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