WDPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 169.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 196 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT CYCLONE
01P (LOLA) HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, AND SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES EVEN ROSE SLIGHTLY
TO AN AVERAGE OF AROUND 120 KT, WHICH IS THE ASSESSED INITIAL
INTENSITY. DURING THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF HOURS, THERE ARE SIGNS 
THAT COOLER WATERS MAY BE STARTING TO AFFECT THE STORM, WITH THE EYE
BECOMING A BIT RAGGED AND THE COLD RING WARMING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR IS ASSESSED AT OVER 30 KT BY MODEL ANALYSES DUE TO A
SHIFT IN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW FROM LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES TO MID-
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES WITH HEIGHT, BUT THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTING THE INNER CORE JUST YET.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 119 KTS AT 232015Z
   CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 232330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) IS CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. LOLA HAS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD PEAKED IN INTENSITY, AND
SHOULD SOON BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
COOLER UNDERLYING WATER AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. A BELT
OF 30-40 KT ENVIRONMENTAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 250-400MB
LAYER ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CORAL SEA IS
EXPECTED BY ALL NUMERICAL MODELS TO CAUSE FULL DECOUPLING OF THE
VORTEX IN 24-36 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST THUS SHOWS DRAMATIC
WEAKENING TO UNDER WARNING THRESHOLD BY 72 HOURS AS LOLA TRACKS
THROUGH THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU AND TURNS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW
CALEDONIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ALONG THIS
FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND NAVGEM. THE JTWC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SOME
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD EXISTS AROUND 48-72 HOURS DUE TO VARIABILITY IN
HOW QUICKLY THE VORTEX DECOUPLES AND SURRENDERS TO THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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