WDIO31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.5N 52.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 137 NM SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED A BIT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTED BY PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER AND FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION ALONG WITH A REMNANT EYEWALL OPEN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
DOWNSTREAM EXTRAPOLATION FROM A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT
IN 231542Z GMI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH
MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (D-MINT, D-PRINT, AND
SATCON) IN THE 59 TO 75-KNOT RANGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 75 KTS AT 231721Z
   CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 231800Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 58 KTS AT 231800Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 66 KTS AT 231406Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A HAS TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD
TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THAN PREDICTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE SUSTAINED HIGH INTENSITY AND THE DEEP
LAYER STEERING FLOW. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER IT 
MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENING BEGINS AS THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 
STEERING FLOW IS STRONGER IN THE LOWER-LEVELS. PASSAGE OVER LAND
WILL RESULT IN STEADY DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: ASIDE FROM UNREALISTICALLY SHARP WESTWARD NAVGEM
AND GALWEM FORECAST TRACKS, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AND ARE CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NOTED OUTLIERS AND CURRENT STORM MOTION CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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