WDPS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 169.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 229 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) HAS SEEMINGLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS, DESPITE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WATERS OF AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. A CLEAR EYE REMAINS SURROUNDED
BY DEEP CONVECTION AS COLD AS -80 DEGREES CELSIUS IN PATCHES WITHIN
THE EYEWALL. A 231933Z GPM MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THAT THE INNER
CORE REMAINS INTACT, THOUGH EROSION OF THE WESTERN EYEWALL IS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE
AND OCEAN WATERS COOL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS HELD AT 115
KT, SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS AND AMSR2

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 105 KTS AT 231421Z
   CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 231730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) HAS ALMOST CERTAINLY
REACHED PEAK INTENSITY, AND A STEEP FALL IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HOSTILE FACTORS.
LOLA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS,
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 48 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY,
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DUE TO THE
ENCROACHMENT OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CORAL SEA
IMPARTING A BELT OF 30-35 KT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE STORM IN THE
250-400MB LAYER. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ON
THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SO THESE OPPOSING
FLOWS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID DECOUPLING OF LOLA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING A RAPID COLLAPSE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE JTWC
FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY 72 HOURS AS
THE REMNANT VORTEX DRIFTS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWARD WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS NEW CALEDONIA. PRIOR TO DISSIPATION, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOLA WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF VANUATU AT TYPHOON INTENSITY IN
12-24 HOURS DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF ITS WEAKENING PHASE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME SPREAD BY 48-72 HOURS DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE VORTEX DECOUPLES AND SURRENDERS TO
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO A CONSENSUS OF HAFS-A, GFS, COAMPS-TC, AND ECMWF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN