WDIO32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (HAMOON) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.2N 88.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 205 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CYCLONE 06B (HAMOON) IS MAINTAINING AN INNER CONVECTIVE CORE, WITH
CONVECTIVE BURSTS ROTATING ABOUT THE LLCC. WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KT, BUT IS NOT YET DISRUPTING THE INNER
CORE. INTENSITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AS THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED, WITH A CLEAR EMBEDDED CENTER
AND POSSIBLE FORMATIVE EYEWALL EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY
DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES. STRONG POLEWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED INTO A JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 231500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: CYCLONE 06B (HAMOON) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD, USHERED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TAKING IT
CLOSE TO THE MOUTH OF THE MEGHNA RIVER IN 36-48 HOURS. WIND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE DURING THE REMAINING TIME BEFORE LANDFALL IN
BANGLADESH, SO WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS.
SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
HOSTILE LEVELS OF SHEAR IF THE INNER CORE CONTINUES BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. HAMOON MAY RETAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY UP UNTIL
LANDFALL, BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY NEAR THE COASTLINE ACCORDING
TO ALL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE VORTEX BECOMES DECOUPLED AND
MOVES INLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST
ARE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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