WDPS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.5S 169.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 265 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN TIGHTER FROM ALL
QUADRANTS INTO A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH
DEEPENING AND OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND A 30-NM EYE THAT HAS
BECOME MORE SHARPLY-OUTLINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNIFORM DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 
115KTS ACROSS ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND THE ADT, AND REFLECTS THE 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
EAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   PHFO: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 231130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED BY 15KTS, OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC LOLA WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STEERING NER BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, THE NER IS WEAKENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OR FUEL A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY, BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF
VANUATU, INCREASING VWS, THEN COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY THEN
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 250NM BY TAU 96, LENDING OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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