WDIO31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.3N 52.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 137 NM SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DECAY AT A FASTER THAN NORMAL RATE AS EVIDENCED 
BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND UNRAVELING
FEEDER BANDS. A DRY SLOT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK IS ALSO EVIDENT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 230936Z AMSR2
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES
AND UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LOW TO MODERATE VWS, MODERATE
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OFFSET BY NEAR-SURFACE NORTHWESTERLY COOL DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CORE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 68 KTS AT 231008Z
   CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 230900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING STR, TC TEJ WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN YEMEN OVER THE 
NEXT SIX HOURS. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM 
DOWN TO 55KTS AT TAU 12 AFTER LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING COOL 
NORTHERLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE  ARABIAN PENINSULA IN ADDITION 
TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE DRY YEMENI DESERT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, VERY LIKELY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SPREAD TO 165NM AT TAU 36, LENDING AN OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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