WDPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.2S 169.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 277 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN TIGHTER FROM ALL 
QUADRANTS INTO A SYMMETRICAL COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH DEEPENING AND
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED AND ELONGATED
15-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECT THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 97 KTS AT 230201Z
   CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 230530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC LOLA WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STEERING NER BUILDS. AFTER TAU 72, THE NER IS WEAKENED BY A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM 
TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE 
RIDGE AXIS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION 
WITH THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU, INCREASING VWS, THEN COOLING SST WILL 
GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 243NM BY TAU 120, LENDING OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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