WDIO31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.0N 52.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 139 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS LOST ITS EYE YIELDING TO A RAGGED REMNANT EYE FEATURE AS THE
COLD DENSE OVERCAST WARMED AND FEEDER BANDS LOOSENED. A DRY SLOT
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK IS ALSO EVIDENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE REMNANT EYE FEATURE IN THE
MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS,
MODERATE OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OFFSET BY NEAR-SURFACE NORTHWESTERLY
COOL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM:  EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 230500Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 71 KTS AT 230500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING STR, TC TEJ WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN YEMEN, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE
TAU 12. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 75KTS AT LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING COOL NORTHERLY 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA IN ADDITION TO LAND 
INTERACTION WITH THE DRY YEMENI DESERT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM 
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, VERY LIKELY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN
EVEN SPREAD TO 44NM AT TAU 12, THEN MORE ERRATIC AFTERWARD AS THE
MODEL TRACKERS LOSE A WEAK VORTEX, LENDING AN OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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