WDPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA)       
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.5S 169.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 317 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 40 KNOTS AT 220000Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 30 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE, 
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 
PGTW, PHFO SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 222340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01P IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE 
UNTIL ABOUT TAU 24 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95-100 KNOTS WITHIN THE 
NEXT DAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO 
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND COOLING SST (26-
27 C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF ESPIRITU SANTO, VANUATU 
THEN RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA WHILE 
RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 40 KNOTS) 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND COOL SST (25 TO 40 
KNOTS TO 24 C). TC 01P WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 120 AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS (VWS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AND SST COOLER THAN 22 C).   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT OVER THE PAST DAY BUT STILL REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK, ESPECIALLY IN RESPECT TO THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU AND
NEW CALEDONIA. THERE IS A 100 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 WITH
SOLUTIONS FROM NORTHERN ESPIRITU SANTO ISLAND TO MALEKULA ISLAND.
THE BETTER GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFS) SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF ESPIRITU
SANTO WITH THE BULK OF THE 221800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SOLUTIONS
ALSO FAVORING THE SOUTH OF ESPIRITU SANTO TRACK. THE 221800Z GFS
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) IS MORE EVENLY SPREAD ACROSS BOTH ISLANDS. THERE IS
NOW A LOW PROBABILITY FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH THE
221800Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE (GFS VERSION) INDICATING A LOW (20
PERCENT) PROBABILITY FOR RI THROUGH TAU 24. HOWEVER, THE COAMPS-TC
ENSEMBLE INDICATES 80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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