WDIO31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ)        
WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.3N 53.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 167 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY WEAKENING CORE WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ERODING CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 222237Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN QUADRANTS INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE ATMS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND A RECENT AIDT ESTIMATE OF 93 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 105 KTS AT 222330Z
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 230000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 18 BUT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND INTERACTION WITH LAND.
THE HAFS-A MESOSCALE MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG CONVECTION
AND HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AT
LANDFALL AND INLAND.     

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GALWEM (AFUM) TRACKER
AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN (UEMN) TRACKER, WHICH TRACK THE REMNANT
SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE RAPID 
WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER TAU 12.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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