WDPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA)       
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.3S 169.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 327 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 30 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 35 KNOTS AT 211800Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED, DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 221639Z SSMIS 
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE 221639Z 
SSMIS 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE REVEALS A CYAN RING SURROUNDING A 
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, INDICATIVE OF THE ONGOING RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK 
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 62 KTS AT 221416Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 221730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL 
RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY 
FAVORABLE UNTIL ABOUT TAU 36 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. 
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND 
COOLING SST (26-27 C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK JUST SOUTH OF ESPIRITU 
SANTO, VANUATU THEN RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA 
WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 40 
KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND COOL SST (25 TO 
23 C). TC 01P WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 120 AS IT INTERACTS WITH 
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT OVER THE PAST DAY BUT STILL REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK, ESPECIALLY IN RESPECT TO THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU AND NEW
CALEDONIA. THERE IS A 115 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 WITH
SOLUTIONS FROM NORTHERN ESPIRITU SANTO ISLAND TO MALEKULA ISLAND.
THE BETTER GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFS) SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF ESPIRITU
SANTO WITH THE BULK OF THE 220600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) SOLUTIONS
ALSO FAVORING THE SOUTH OF ESPIRITU SANTO TRACK. THE 221200Z GFS
ENSEMBLE (GEFS) IS MORE EVENLY SPREAD ACROSS BOTH ISLANDS. THE
221200Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE (GFS VERSION) INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR RI THROUGH TAU 24 WITH 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY PEAK
VALUES. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED
REFLECTING RIPE CONDITIONS FOR RI THROUGH TAU 36, AND HAFS-A
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SHORT PERIOD OF RI, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS AT TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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