WDIO31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ)        
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.8N 53.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 192 NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE AND HAS REINTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY. A 221424Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC ANNULUS OF 110 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING A 15 NM
EYE, WITH A MAXIMUM WIND VALUE OF 116 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAR
DATA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FORMATIVE EYE, WHICH HAS APPEARED BRIEFLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. A 221419Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPLETE EYEWALL AND MICROWAVE EYE BUT
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY ERODED THE OUTER BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION 
FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE SAR 
DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 221500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 24 BUT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE 
HAFS-A MESOSCALE MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG CONVECTION AND 
HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AT LANDFALL 
AND INLAND.     

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GALWEM (AFUM) TRACKER AND 
UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN (UEMN) TRACKER, WHICH TRACK THE REMNANT SYSTEM 
INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE RAPID WEAKENING
FORECAST AFTER TAU 12.    

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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