WDPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.4S 168.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 380 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE NORTH AND SOUTH INTO A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL COLD DENSE OVERCAST 
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
FROM A 220955Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PAS AND ARE SUPPORTED BY AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES FIXES AND REFLECT THE SLIGHT 6-HR
CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. 



AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 221140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC LOLA WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12, AS THE STEERING NER BUILDS. AFTER TAU
72, THE NER IS WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE NER AXIS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH NEW CALEDONIA WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH AN
EVEN BUT LARGE SPREAD TO 455NM BY TAU 72 THEN TO 436NM BY TAU 120.
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD, AND THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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