WDIO31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.3N 54.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 222 NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
LOST ITS PINHOLE YIELDING TO A DIMPLE FEATURE. THE CYCLONE REMAINS
INTENSE WITH A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST; HOWEVER,
A DRY SLOT HAS CRACKED OPEN ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLE FEATURE
IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH
THE ONSET OF NEAR-SURFACE COOL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 221030Z
   CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 221130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: NEAR-SURFACE COOL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TC
TEJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN YEMEN, MAKING 
LANDFALL AROUND TAU 30. THE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 90KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
AFTERWARD, INCREASING COOL NORTHERLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE 
ARABIAN PENINSULA IN ADDITION TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE DRY YEMENI 
DESERT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, VERY 
LIKELY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN
EVEN SPREAD TO 57NM AT TAU 30, THEN MORE ERRATIC AFTERWARD AS THE
MODEL TRACKERS LOSE A WEAK VORTEX, LENDING AN OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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