WDPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.7S 167.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 421 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND SOUTH INTO A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL COLD DENSE OVERCAST THAT
IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A LOW
LEVEL NOTCH FEATURE - THE INTERSECTION OF THE FORMATIVE BANDS - IN
THE 220210Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES 
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   NFFN: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 220220Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 220530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC LOLA WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, AS THE STEERING NER BUILDS. AFTER TAU 96,
THE NER IS WEAKENED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS
TO ROUND THE NER AXIS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35KTS BY TAU
120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH AN
EVEN BUT LARGE SPREAD TO 568NM BY TAU 72 THEN 500NM BY TAU 120.
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD, AND THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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