WDIO31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.7N 55.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 263 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY UNDERGONE
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE ERC HAS TEMPERED ANY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE OUTER EYEWALL EXPANDED AND ERODED,
YIELDING TO A SMALLER 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 89 KTS AT 220243Z
   CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 220600Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 110 KTS AT 220500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: A SECONDARY RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
NO LONGER ANTICIPATED, OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STR, TC TEJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN YEMEN, MAKING LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU
36. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY,
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER, UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, COLD NORTHERLY
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 85KTS AT THE TAU 36 LANDFALL.
AFTERWARD, THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WITH THE DESERT WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, LIKELY SOONER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN
EVEN SPREAD TO 86NM AT TAU 36, THEN MORE ERRATIC AFTERWARD AS THE
MODEL TRACKERS LOSE A WEAK VORTEX, LENDING AN OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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