WDIO31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ)        
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.0N 55.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 316 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND A WELL-DEFINED
MOAT FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE 212202Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. 
AFTER AN IMPRESSIVE 24-HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION, 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MORE 
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING CORE CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE MAINTAINED AT 5.5 
(102 KNOTS) AND, CONSEQUENTLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 
105 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 212206Z
   CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 212100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONGOING ERC PRESENTS SOME CHALLENGES WITH SOME 
WEAKENING POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE HIGHLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 
12 TO TAU 24 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, DRY AIR 
OFF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN AND 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM, WITH STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL 
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48. THE 211800Z HAFS-A 91 GHZ MICROWAVE BRIGHTNESS 
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INDICATE RAPID EROSION OF THE EYEWALL OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, STRONG DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AT LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05A WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS 
INLAND WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 35 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. 
AFTER TAU 36, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (211800Z 
GEFS AND 211200Z EPS RUNS) DIVERGE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
EXACT TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION 
THROUGH TAU 12 TO TAU 24 WITH STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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