WDIO31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ)        
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.4N 56.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 366 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 65 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 40 KNOTS AT 201800Z TO THE 211800Z INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE, WITH
AN 8 NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED 
BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 211711Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: PEAK INTENSITY INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY 
TO 135 KNOTS DUE TO EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, DRY AIR OFF THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM, WITH STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR 
TAU 60. THE 211200Z HAFS-A 91 GHZ MICROWAVE BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE 
FORECASTS INDICATE RAPID EROSION OF THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, STRONG DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
ARE EXPECTED AT LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AFTER TAU 60, 
TC 05A WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 
96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 45 NM CROSS-TRACK 
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND 
PROBABILISTIC (211200Z GEFS AND EPS RUNS) GUIDANCE DIVERGE WITH 
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
SUPPORTS RI THROUGH TAU 24. SPECIFICALLY, THE 211200Z COAMPS-TC (GFS 
VERSION) ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITY CHART INDICATES PEAK 
PROBABILITIES OF 70 TO 80 PERCENT FROM TAU 0 TO TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED SUPPORTING THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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