WDIO31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.7N 57.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 424 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH OVERSHOOTING 
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER WHERE A FORMATIVE EYE IS BECOMING 
APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 210945Z AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH A FORMATIVE 
EYE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION OFF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST
OF YEMEN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AFTER LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 122NM. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERRATICALLY AS THEY LOSE A WEAK VORTEX, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD, DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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