WDIO31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WARNING NR 
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.2N 58.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 479 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER 
INTO COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 210255Z SSMIS 89 
GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ALSO
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36. 
AFTERWARD SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION OFF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA 
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN COAST OF 
YEMEN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AFTER LANDFALL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU
72 WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 150NM. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERRATICALLY AS THEY LOSE A WEAK VORTEX, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW AFTERWARD, DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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